← Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Wilczek - Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
3
(6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-8-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
46.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1276
· range 1262–1343
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1183
Q3 1380
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Suited | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Ciel | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.6% | -7.1 |
